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Key Stats: Vernon Wells hit more home runs in 2008 than he did in 2007 despite having over 150 less at bats. Just as important as a rise in production is that he was missing time at all as he ages. Wells has signed his big deal and is also going to be on the wrong side of 30 next season.

Skeptics Say: Wells has been a hit or miss players for a few years. Dating back to 2002 his OPS has dipped and dove from .909 to .809 to .783 to .899 to .706 to .840. The possibilities for Wells are vague. The inconsistency was a factor in Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi placing Wells on waivers last season.

Peer Comparison: There were a lot of outfielders looking to rebound last year. Among them were Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Jason Bay, and Wells.

Bay and Wells bounced back while Francoeur and Jones continued to slide. Much like a stock that is doing well, you don’t need to sell on Wells high stats because it’s possible he could continue to flourish. He had an excellent second half hitting .318 and the majority of his home runs. Bay also continued to grow in the 2nd half as the trade to the Red Sox increased his value.

Meanwhile, Jones and Francoeur have become much riskier picks over the last year. Jones is out of shape and much like Vincent Chase after Aquaman he is embarrassed. Francoeur is still young, but getting jacked last year didn’t help as much as steroids have for other players. In Jones’ case, coming off of a rather large deal meant gaining rather large thighs so predicting a fade was easy. Sometimes, like Francoeur’s case, it isn’t as easy to see.

Lineup Outlook: The Blue Jays were a disappointing team last year because the offense didn’t live up to expectations. Alex Rios, the Blue Jays other high paid outfielder, hit four home runs in the first three months of the season. Travis Snyder has a lot of promise and Adam Lind could even challenge Wells for his spot in the order if his inconsistency goes into dive mode next season.

What They’re Saying: MLB.com: #26 Outfielder; CBS Sportsline: #24 Outfielder and #100 Overall; Fox Sports: #22 Outfielder; ESPN: #30 Outfielder; Yahoo: #30 Outfielder and #84 Overall

Projection
: Let go of the dice. It’s time to gamble.
87 R 24 HR 94 RBI 5 SB .285 AVG .830 OPS

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One Response to No. 127 Vernon Wells OF Toronto Blue Jays

  1. Dave says:

    No, don’t do it!

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