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Key Stats: Last season Elijah Dukes had 13 HRs and 13 SBs in only 276 at bats. Doubling the at bat total is reasonable and therefore so a 25 HR/25 SB season. Dukes OPS for the season was really good, but in 101 at bats after the All Star game it was an incredible .972. He has always had tremendous natural ability, but then again the Rays saw this and still traded him. Segway…

Skeptics Say: Dukes has a significant history of off the field problems. He also lost time to an injured calf and a knee injury last season. There is also the recent addition of Josh Willingham to the Nats team that already has Lastings Milledge and Austin Kearns roaming the outfield with Dukes. If Nick Johnson is healthy enough to play next season (what? I have to say it) then he will have to earn his job. While the stats look great in a limited number of at bats, there is plenty of concern that Dukes could lose at bats for a number of reasons again in 2009.

Peer Comparison: Looking at some of the crazier personalities in the league such as Milton Bradley and Manny Ramirez there are precedents for being able to have success on the field despite trouble off it. Josh Hamilton has seemingly overcome off the field troubles and Dukes has kept away from bad news since arriving in Washington. To conclude that Dukes has learned his lessons might be thinking too optimistically as Pacman Jones has proven in the NFL, but Jerry Jones serves as proof that talent like Pacman or Dukes will remain on the field anyway.

Lineup Outlook: The Nationals are the second youngest team in the league (Marlins are 1st) and Dukes is just one person who could improve in this lineup. A big fish that the Nationals are interested in is Mark Teixeira who was born nearby in Annapolis. If they hand the money to Tex, Dukes will hit 6th in the order otherwise he should hit 5th behind Ryan Zimmerman and Milledge.

What They’re Saying: MLB.com: #40 Outfielder; CBS Sportsline: #70 Outfielder; Fox Sports: #53 Outfielder; ESPN: #65 Outfielder; Yahoo: #52 Outfielder and #187 Overall

Projection: Let the Nats deal with the baggage and your fantasy team deal with the wonderful potential.
68R 27 HR 94 RBI 19 SB .267 AVG .860 OPS

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