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Key Stats: Chad Billingsley has a great chance to be better than he was in 2008. His BABIP was .320 which was really high. Given that he strikes out a batter per inning, the trimmed down WHIP will make Billingsley a four category player in 5×5 leagues.

Skeptics Say: His .270 batting average against in the second half was too high, regardless of luck. Billingsley had only thrown 147 innings in 2007, but the Dodgers pushed him well over the 200 inning threshold after the playoffs. He has great stuff, but is he truly ready to be the work horse with Derek Lowe gone?

Peer Comparison: Separating A.J. Burnett and Billingsley was a difficult task. The walk and K/9 inning rates were virtually identical last year. Burnett will have less of a financial incentive now that his deal is done, but Billingsley won’t have tremendous financial gains at stake until he becomes a free agent in 2013. Burnett was healthy last season, but only reached 200 innings in one other season. Billingsley has already broken his leg this offseason.

I’m taking Burnett for a couple reasons. First, he’s been doing it longer. Second, he’s more capable of taking a fantasy team on his shoulder as an ace for stretches. Burnett had 6 double digit K games last year; Billingsley just 2. Third, Burnett finished strong (0 home runs allowed in September); Billingsley had a 8.49 playoff ERA. Fourth, Burnett plays for a team that will give him better run support.

Team Outlook: The Dodgers have let Takashi Saito go, but they still retain a great bullpen. Jonathan Broxton was viewed as the closer sooner or later in L.A. The guy that really falls under the radar for the Dodgers is Hong-Chi Kuo who had a BAA of .200 last year after struggling to find himself in seasons past. If Manny Ramirez is not resigned it will be harder for Billingsley to get run support, but run prevention won’t be much of a problem.

What They’re Saying: MLB.com: #22 Starting Pitcher; CBS Sportsline: #19 Starting Pitcher and #78 Overall; Fox Sports: #11 Starting Pitcher; ESPN: #16 Starting Pitcher; Yahoo: #10 Starting Pitcher and #73 Overall

Projection: One of the players that should be monitored during spring training coming off of the broken leg. Assuming there are no set backs…
17 Wins 3.23 ERA 1.28 WHIP 198K in 201 innings

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2 Responses to No. 97 Chad Billingsley SP LA Dodgers

  1. Brozif says:

    This is a guy with upside that should be watched closely… I like him ahead of Gallardo.

    His BB’s are troubling but given his youth, he has a chance to improve significantly. The fact that he also plays in an incredibly weak offensive division should continue to help him a ton.

  2. Alex says:

    Can’t find an email address on your blog. If you’re interested in swapping links, visit my site (waiverwire.blogspot.com) and send me an email.

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