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Key Stats: Did Magglio Ordonez take steroids? Nothing like hooking the reader with a juicy (no pun intended) opening line, but hear out this acceleration in numbers from 2006 to 2007 and the drop off from 2007 to 2008:

From 06′ to 07′: Hits up 39, home runs up 4, strikeouts down 7, slugging percentage up .082
From 07′ to 08′: Hits down 38, home runs down 7, strikeouts down 3, slugging percentage down .101

In the Witch Hunt Era of course the stats point to Ordonez being on steroids, but statistically and in historical context it is really unlikely. The BABIP gods were simply in Ordonez’s favor in 2007. The numbers throughout his career have been very even with the exception of that spike. Also, the Steroid Era for the moment appears to be strongest from the end of the 1990s to the beginning of the 2000s. George Mitchell was on the players minds before the start of the 2007 season and they had to recognize the threat of how baseball was testing at this point.

Skeptics Say: With that being said, the stats probably aren’t going to rise back to his best season of 2007 in 2009, and if anything Ordonez will continue to regress. He is now 35 years old and his BABIP was still relatively high last year. Also, for the purpose of runs scored there isn’t a sure thing in the Tigers lineup hitting behind him.

Peer Comparison: There are many ratings systems out there to get information about how high players are rated. The websites in what they’re saying are major media companies, thus the ones that your competition will be most likely to visit. All of them have Jermaine Dye being taken after Ordonez. The FBHS is no different, but if an owner is looking for bang for the buck (and who isn’t these days) Dye is the better option.

  • Dye and Ordonez were born on the exact same day. The exact times of the births are unknown so age is a wash.
  • Going by Yahoo and ESPN standards, Dye had a better 2008
  • Both players’ contracts have options for 2010 – another wash
  • Dye probably won’t get traded from hitter friendly US Cellular. If Bobby Abreu is getting signed for $5 million, the market for an older player with less capabilities making $11.5 million is terrible.

Lineup Outlook: Manager Jim Leyland announced what he thinks his lineup will look like. Carlos Guillen and Gary Sheffield will hit behind Ordonez. The paths of all three careers are on a downward slope. While losing Edgar Renteria didn’t have the fans in Detroit screaming for a bailout, the fans might miss him when Adam Everett’s turn in the order comes up.

What They’re Saying: #19 Outfielder and #48 Overall; CBS Sportsline: #20 Outfielder and #47 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #63 Overall; Fox Sports: #20 Outfielder; ESPN: #19 Outfielder; Yahoo: #24 Outfielder and #62 Overall

Projection: A perfect complement for teams that draft batting average-slayer Adam Dunn.
70R 20 HR 105 RBI 0 SB .320 AVG .863 OPS

2 Responses to No. 50 Magglio Ordonez OF Detroit Tigers

  1. Dave says:

    # Dye and Ordonez were born on the exact same day. The exact times of the births are unknown so age is a wash.

    I love the deadpan delivery of this line!

    Well said about Ordonez, Dye and Dunn. You’re right that Ordonez is more valuable in certain contexts (average slayers) but Dye represents a more likely ROI.

  2. Harlem Boyz says:

    I agree with your stat projection for the year and believe it’s well within the realm of possibility. However, 6th-7th round is too high. Second base is not a thin position. 8 second basemen had double digit homers and double digit steal, 8 with 90 or more runs, and 11 batting over .290. Why waste an early pick on someone like Alexei when you get get someone nearly equal in projected statistical value (i.e. Lopez, Johnson, Weeks, Polanco, etc.) late in the draft or even off waivers? For example:

    80 runs; 17 homers; 89 rbis; 6 sb; .297 avg; 644 AB’s; Age 26; ADP 48.1

    65 runs; 21 homers; 77 rbis; 13 sb; .290 avg; 480 AB’s; Age 28; ADP 154.2

    I’d rather than the latter guy (Lopez), then go early on the former. Just a thought.

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