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Key Stats: When a player is named to the All-Star team before his 24th birthday it’s usually a good idea to take notice. Adam Jones was one of those players like Elvis Andrus this year that had the right combination of things going for him to potentially break out and Jones did just that. He did a little of everything, but not too much of anything. It would have been interesting to see where his numbers would have gone had he played out the last month of the season which was lost to a sprained ankle. This was the pace he was on September 1st:

96 R 22 HR 81 RBI 12 SB

Skeptics Say: While those numbers are good, assuming that Jones was an All-Star from that kind of a season would not be a given. The only reason Jones was at the All-Star game was because his first half production was much better than his second half. Sometimes hitters can’t readjust to the adjustments made on them after initial success. The adjustment for Jones needs to happen with his plate discipline. He walked about once every three times he struck out last year – which was an improvement from 2008, but still not a great rate stat. Hopefully it was just Jones hitting a wall in the second half, but I’m a little worried given that this happened in his second season rather than the first.

Peer Comparison: Depending on which fantasy scholars you ask, Jones can be worth anywhere from a late fifth round pick to around an 11th round pick. Tristian Cockcroft of ESPN.com has him higher than anyone I’ve seen, and I have to question Cockcroft ranking Jones ahead of Adam Lind.

Both Lind and Jones are coming off of breakout seasons, but Lind was more consistent and just plain more than Jones. Lind’s OPS in the second half was 10 points better in the first half. Jones’ OPS was 143 points worse in the second half. Lind had more runs, home runs, RBI, a better average and a better OPS than Jones. The only stats that Jones would seem to make a run at Lind on would be runs and steals. Given that Lind is expected to be Toronto’s full-time number three hitter next season (he spent half the year in the number five slot) Lind will have more opportunities to score runs next year and should compete with Jones in that category as well.

ESPN is too radical for Jones, but CBS is too radical against him. He is ranked behind outfielders such as Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Carlos Lee. All of those players are in their mid 30s and have serious questions which have already been addressed in their player profiles (click links for details). As a tie-breaker on who to take ask who you’d rather keep in 2011.

Lineup Outlook: Jones was the number two hitter for most of last year hitting between Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. It would be hard to ask for more from Roberts, but Markakis had an average season by any standard. By the end of the season it was Matt Wieters who was taking over the third spot in the batting order, and it could be Wieters who is called upon for good this year to take that spot in the order. If that is the case and Wieters breaks out too, (a lot of ifs here) Jones production will be at the level Cockcroft expects it to be.

What They’re Saying: CBS Sportsline: #35 Outfielder; ESPN.com: #60 Overall; Yahoo: #22 Outfielder and 73 Overall; Mock Draft Central: #83 Overall; Couch Managers: #112 Overall ; FB 365: #29 Outfielder

Projection: Jones makes the adjustments and improvements in his third year.
100R 23 HR 72 RBI 14 SB .286 AVG .815 OPS

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2 Responses to Adam Jones Player Projection No. 95

  1. Sean says:

    What about peer comparisons between Adam Jones (ADP 90.34) and Franklin Gutierrez (ADP 263.04)? It could be argued Franklin outperformed Jones due to his steals and hits…is there anything I'm missing that everyone seems to get? Or is Franklin a hugely underrated player?

  2. Schruender says:

    Great point Sean. Anyone in their right minds would have rather had Gutierrez than Jones if they could do it all over last season.

    That's not saying I would take Gutierrez over Jones this year though. Jones was a great player coming up with the Mariners and at 23 years old his ceiling is still TBD. Gutierrez is now 27, and may have just put together a career year last year.

    Since there's 170 picks between the two players there's no doubt that Gutierrez is the better value, but if he has a better April than Jones I would still think twice about doing a one for one swap.

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