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Key Stats: As a hitter by the statistics, Shane Victorino was pretty much the same guy for two straight years, but he was ranked number 53 on last year’s countdown. So, why the demotion? First of all, as that post indicates I believed Victorino was going to approach 20 home runs based on the power he displayed late in the year, but he only got to 10 home runs. After three straight seasons of 10-14 home runs, it’s safe to say what this guy’s ceiling is in this category. Secondly, the Flyin Hawaiin was rather grounded last year. The steal attempts went down from 47 to 33 despite getting to the plate 67 more times last year.

Skeptics Say: Away from Citizens Bank Park, Victorino was a less than desirable option for fantasy owners. Given that he didn’t home runs and was running less, the .267 average on the road made him as useful as a public relations firm run by Gilbert Arenas.

Peer Comparison: There’s not a good reason for Andre Ethier to be drafted after Victorino, but Mock Draft Central is seeing that happen in the average mock. Each player brings a different skill (speed vs. power) to the table, but Ethier seems to be trending up while Victorino is heading slightly down.

For a general idea of how valuable Victorino’s steals are, there were 29 players who stole 20 to 29 bases last year in Major League Baseball and 17 players that stole 30 or more. In other words Victorino’s steals used to be like diamonds but now they are like coal.

So throwing out that statistic, Ethier can hang with Victorino in all the other stats and crushes Victorino in home runs, RBI, and OPS.

Lineup Outlook: It’s why Victorino is ranked where he is. The Phillies lineup scored more runs than any team in the NL and could have scored more if Jimmy Rollins played anywhere close to the level that he played at when he was the MVP in 2007. Victorino set a new career high in RBI despite Rollins’ OBP of only .296, but he will drive in more this season.

What They’re Saying: CBS Sportsline: #21 Outfielder; #76 Overall; Yahoo: #25 Outfielder and #79 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #69 Overall; Couch Mangers: #71 Overall FB 365: #25 Outfielder

Projection: He’s going to be 30, so the safe play would be to predict more of the same after two very similar statistical seasons. Let’s be boring.
109R 11 HR 65 RBI 27 SB .277 AVG .790 OPS

3 Responses to Shane Victorino Player Projection No. 94

  1. Anonymous says:

    Shane is already at your home run projection…

  2. Schruender says:

    Yes and he's also surpassed his home run total from 2009. He's hitting a higher percentage of fly balls and also seeing a higher percentage of those fly balls leave the park than he ever has in his career. He's been terrific, but with more than half a season to play I'd be surprised if he hit 11 more this year.

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