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Key Stats: For four straight seasons Adam Dunn hit 40 home runs. Last year he only hit 38. Still it’s as consistent a stat you will find this side of a Brett Favre wrong place, wrong time interception.

Skeptics Say: If a standard 5×5 league included OPS or OBP rather than batting average Dunn would be ranked significantly higher. Those categories make Dunn a four category player. Instead he’s a 3 category player who is a liability in batting average. Last season Dunn hit .267 and it actually was a career high for him. His batting average on balls in play was 32 points higher than his career average, so that .267 will likely remain his career best. That puts him optimistically at about .260 for a batting average.

Peer Comparison: Carlos Pena has been taken 77th on average in Mock Draft Central drafts, or 23 picks after Dunn. Granted Dunn can play two different positions, but if you are taking Dunn as a first baseman, it might be more cost effective to wait around on Pena. Despite missing the last month of the season with a broken finger, Pena hit more home runs and scored more runs than Dunn. What’s likely scaring people away from Pena is his .227 average last season, but that was based on bad luck as Pena’s BABIP fell 40 points below his career mark. Considering that Pena hit for a better average than Dunn in 2007 and 2008, he could easily pass him again.

For bigger leagues that need to be even more thrifty, Russell Branyan has been going 180th on average. Similar to Pena, Branyan sat out a lot of games at the end of last year but hit one home run every 13.9 at bats. Dunn was hitting a home run once every 14.3 at bats. Branyan isn’t going 180th without reason though. He is four years older than Dunn and wasn’t a starter for any team up until last season. Perhaps that explains why he remains unsigned at the moment.

Lineup Outlook: Looking back on the season it’s hard to believe the Nationals had one of the best 3-4 combos in the league, but they did between Ryan Zimmerman and Dunn. Aside from the Phillies, Brewers, and maybe the Dodgers there was no combination of hitters that were more dangerous than what the Nationals could bring. If Nyjer Morgan can pick up where he left off, it’s very possible that a healthy Dunn will set a new career high in RBI.

What They’re Saying: CBS Sportsline: #15 First Baseman and #24 Outfielder; #65 Overall; Yahoo: #23 Outfielder, #16 First Baseman and #74 Overall Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #54 Overall; Couch Managers: #58 Overall ; FB 365: #19 Outfielder

Projection: Leave room in the projections for the possibility of Dunn being dealt at the midway point in the season.
77 R 41 HR 108 RBI 2 SB .254 AVG .920 OPS

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6 Responses to Adam Dunn Player Projection No. 68

  1. Dave says:

    I miss the days of Adam Dunn as a speed threat. The extra 5-6 SB were handy.

    It's interesting that he has much cheaper comps (Pena, Branyan) available. I guess it's a good case study on how people value consistency among other things.

  2. Charlie Saponara says:

    Dave, I think you are exactly right on here. We almost Know just what we get from Dunn. While Pena and Branyan have their question marks.

    As a matter of fact, Branyan is a guy I am staying away from this year due to the "late career year factor" and health/stamina. Though, if he falls to say, the last round, I might take a flier.

  3. Schruender says:

    I think Pena has been proven himself from a consistency standpoint the last three seasons. He's been a top 120 player for three straight years. Last year he would have been a top 75 guy had it not been for getting a fastball thrown too far inside – the type of bad luck that could happen to anyone. Dunn does have him beat on consistency, but Dunn has everyone beat on consistency. It's not like you are going into the great unknown drafting Pena though.

  4. Dave says:

    From a sabermetric standpoint I agree about Pena's consistency, but from a traditional fantasy baseball standpoint he had a 200% increase in stolen bases last year. Ok, just kidding. But,



    The HR balanced out, but that is some pretty wicked variance. Same with BA.

    I agree that Pena's baseline is now pretty well known among FBHS circles but I doubt the ESPNs of the world are on down with the same idea.

  5. john says:

    I think another knock on Branyan is well…. he still isn't on a team.

    Maybe he resigns with Seattle but if not he's going to be hard pressed for at-bats. There are also a ton of other DH/1B only types on the market among them being Jermaine Dye which teams could simply sign.

    When Branyan rejected that offer from Seattle I thought he was doing the right thing and that he deserved a multi-year deal but the market is simply not there for him and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get even less going forward.

    As for Dunn's comps, I'd take him over Branyan or Pena. The Nationals lineup probably shows some growth this year more then the others which also figures to help Dunn some.

  6. Schruender says:

    Yeah it is tough to take Branyan based on the fact that he doesn't have a team, but that also explains why he's going so late too. I wouldn't be caught dead with Branyan in a 10 or 12 team format because at first base he isn't even a top 20 option at this point. I do think for people looking for a dead power hitter that he is a cheap option.

    And Dave aren't FBHS and ESPN essentially the same circle? There are millions of people coming to this blog as this comment is being read! They oughta start saying the worldwide leaders rather than leader.

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