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Key Stats: The only pitcher that had a better WHIP than Chris Carpenter last season was Dan Haren. Carpenter’s 1.01 WHIP was the best of his career and proof that he isn’t done after pitching just 21.1 innings the two prior seasons. On the flip side Carpenter was striking out last batters than he was in his Cy Young season in 2005 and is a borderline 3 category pitcher as a result of his 6.73 K/9.

Skeptics Say: On top of all the arm problems he’s had throughout his career, Carpenter is going to be 35 next year and would be vulnerable to injury based on that factor even if his arm wasn’t made of the same material that Mr. Potato Head’s arm was made of. Among all the starting pitchers ranked ahead of him in the CBS rankings the closest in age to him is Roy Halladay at 33. Even if Carp can stay healthy, whether he can continue to have the success he had last year is in serious doubt.

Peer Comparison: Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were the best 1-2 combination in the Majors last year. For leagues that draft a whole pitching staff rather than individual pitchers, that is a significant point, but I’ve never done a league like that so I’m going to compare them and say you have to choose one or the other. Here’s what they did by the numbers last season:

Carpenter – 3.79 K:BB 6.73 K/9 2.78 FIP 1.01 WHIP
Wainwright – 3.21 K:BB 8.19 K/9 3.11 FIP 1.21 WHIP

Carpenter had the advantage in ERA and WHIP while Wainwright had the advantage in strikeouts and most significantly innings. Carpenter was on the DL for a third straight season last year and so it’s fair to assume he’ll be back there in 2010. If it was needing a pitcher for one week or one start to help your team, Carpenter is the better pitcher. Over the long haul though, at age 28 Wainwright is the more effecient choice.

Team Outlook: Ryan Franklin is expected to close again next season for the Cardinals. He was terrific to begin the year, but had a 1.70 WHIP in the second half of the season. That’s not the stuff that a team with expectations of winning a division and competing for a pennant requires, and nor is it comforting for the owner that drafts Carpenter or Adam Wainwright. One thing that will benefit Carpenter is the return of Matt Holliday. It probably won’t be worth the money he got, but Holliday does provide protection for the most feared hitter in the game and gives Carpenter just a little more run support.

What They’re Saying: CBS Sportsline: #8 Starting Pitcher; ESPN.com: #55 Overall; Yahoo: #5 Starting Pitcher and #34 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #67 Overall; Couch Managers: #49 Overall; FB 365: #15 Starting Pitcher

Projection: If he does stay healthy, these are his numbers, but he’s back in the rankings to protect owners against the high injury potential.
18 wins 2.89 ERA 1.07 WHIP 140 K in 185 innings

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One Response to Chris Carpenter Projection No. 63

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