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Carlos Silva looked terrific again yesterday against the Nationals. It was his fourth quality start in as many tries and he is holding up his end of the bargain for justifying the decision to send Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen. As good as he has been, he should be owned in mixed leagues, but don’t be fooled into thinking he is going to continue what he’s done thus far.

So far this season Silva is giving up a greater percentage of fly balls and a much lesser percentage of home runs per fly ball. He is also allowing only a .178 batting average on balls in play which is extremely lucky given that his line drive rate hasn’t changed much from last season when he was allowing a .323 BABIP. Finally his runners stranded rate is now close to 80% and higher than at any other point it’s been in his career. In summation, Silva is getting lucky both with regards to the amount of hitters that reach base and the amount of hitters that eventually come around to score.

  • Jonathan Sanchez got his second win of the season. It wasn’t the best performance of his season, but coming against Roy Halladay it had to boost his confidence.
  • The Blue Jays scored 12 runs and chased Josh Beckett from the game in 3 innings. Yet they didn’t win the contest. That’s because Travis Snider did nothing as he has for pretty much the whole season. Snider is hitting .133 and the Jays can’t stick with him for much longer.
  • Colby Rasmus is hitting a home run basically three times every ten fly balls. He shouldn’t continue this pace, but the number that will fall even further is his .315 average. He is striking out in one-third of his at-bats currently. Not saying he won’t have value going forward, but definitely am saying he’s worth selling high.
  • Not a good night for Neftali Feliz, but a telling one for the Rangers and fantasy owners alike. Feliz gave up two home runs in the 9th inning on 95 and 94 MPH pitches. He was pitching on back to back occassions for the first time this season, and usually throws a lot harder than that.

9 Responses to Carlos Silva Won’t Continue Hot Start for Cubs

  1. spyder2009 says:

    Hey, how's it goin? Hope your fantasy seasons are going well. Want your opinion on a possible trade.

    5×5 10 team keeper roto league. I would be giving VMart (9th rd $), Aaron Hill (12th rd $), and Nyjer Morgan (18th rd $) for Wright (1st rd $), Ellsbury (free agent), and Jonathan Sanchez (15th rd $).

    I agreed at first, but then declined for these reasons: I would suffer a huge drop at catcher. Top 3 available catchers are Pudge, Kendall, and Varitek. Not to mention, VMart is a definite keeper at a 9th round pick. However, VMart is worrying me a little bit…do you think he will turn it around?

    Hill is a great value as well, but I do have Jose Lopez and Casey McGehee who can fill in and be a similar producer.

    Morgan is dirt cheap and will rack up stolen bases. I also have Michael Bourn, BJ Upton, and Hanley and Alex Rios who steal bases.

    Ellsbury is a great player obviously, but his injury really worries me. I worry it will take him a while to get his swing back, which means he wont be getting on, on top of which he wont be head first sliding (which idk if thats what he does to be honest).

    David Wright is obviously the key here. He's a potential 30/30 guy but for some reason, I'm just not a buyer on him but right now I have Aramis, Cantu, and McGehee and Lopez can also play 3rd. Getting Wright would simply be to move him to one of the Met fans in the league who would want him.

    Jonathan Sanchez is a guy i'm really high on. With Wainwright and Nolasco as my two best pitchers, Sanchez would be a great #3 and will be a definite keeper for me along with Nolasco for next year. My other starters are Buchholz, Dice-K, CJ Wilson, Marcum, Porcello, Wolf, and Chris Young (DL). Got lots of potential there, all cheap so Sanchez isnt a MUST.

    Been hittin it back and forth with a bunch of people, most told me to pull the trigger. I wondered your thoughts.

    After I declined, I was offered McCann (4th rd $), Wright, and Sanchez for VMart, Hill, and Manny (4th rd $). I thought that was actually a better deal than Ellsbury being that I take just a miniscule downgrade at catcher. For equal performance, the price tag is much better for VMart. I despise Manny, and Manny is not a keeper at all, and he is old and doesnt play on afternoon games following night games…but he's got 25/100 potential with a great average. My OF really has limited power with BJ, Rios, Quentin, Bourn, Morgan. I feel like losing Manny will hurt me in the power dept (i do have Kendry and Hanley) but if Wright doesnt turn it around, im not gonna get comparable value for him.

    Would you do the McCann deal?

  2. Schruender says:

    I would do the McCann deal and I agree that that deal is probably the better of the two.

    There's a ton to consider with six players in the deal, but hopefully I can add things that maybe you are unsure of or haven't considered yet.

    1. Manny's contract. There isn't a more selfish player in the game and he has already hinted about a possible retirement. If he's not playing for his next deal, he's not playing through his various "aches and pains."

    2. VMart's contract. It expires at the end of this year and he won't retire. He has the incentives to perform, but unlike Manny I don't think he's someone that's motivated purely for himself. He did have a terrible year two seasons ago which was blamed on health concerns. Might another poor season be happening and might he be playing hurt again?

    3. Hill had more at-bats than anyone in baseball last season. That's not going to happen this year, so you can be pretty sure that his other numbers won't be as good.

    4. Wright had a career low of road home runs and a career low in RBI last season. The road home runs tell me that Citi Field is only part of this mysterious problem, but it still hasn't been solved. Maybe with Reyes back in the lineup and starting to hit Wright will wake up. In any event Beltran can still come back too.

    5. Sanchez has been filthy. In his last 20 starts he has given up more than 3 earned only 4 times and he had terrific strikeout numbers to boot. That's an excellent compliment to Nolasco and Wainwright.

    6. McCann can easily outperform VMart. He has been better in 2 of the last 4 seasons. The only thing to worry about is that the Braves offense has been atrocious. They had one home run in their last 9 games coming into tonight.

  3. spyder2009 says:

    Great points. The contract issues are big, and I agree completely about VMart not being that same selfish player Manny is.

    I agree about Hill and the at bats also. I'm willing to take a gamble and ride the hot bats of McGehee and Lopez

    Wright is really the key here because if he can get back to his "old self" he's a great addition across the board.

    It looks as if the deal might end up just being VMart/Hill for McCann/Wright. It's still good for me because it favors me this year by the numbers, and will favor him for next year as keepers.

  4. Schruender says:

    Yeah I agree with that. Good move there especially early in the season.

  5. spyder2009 says:

    Well, the owner pulled back from this. He's now asking for Hanley Ramirez. Here's the offer:

    He gives Ellsbury (FA next yr), Wright (1st rd $), Ethier (7th rd $), and Andrus (17th rd $) or I could ask for Sanchez (15th rd $)


    Hanley (1st rd $), Hill (12th rd $), and 2 scrubs Randy Wolf and Drew Stubbs.

    I'm a huge fan of Hanley, but if David Wright performs to what he's SUPPOSED to, he's even money. Only thing is, Hanley is an AUTOMATIC first round selection (top 2). Wright, idk if i'd even keep him. Longoria and Youkilis will both be free agents next year at third. Kemp and Ellsbury in the OF, Kinsler and Pedroia at 2B, Tex and Votto at 1B, and Halladay, Lester, Carpenter, Wainwirght, Lee, Haren, Johnson, Gallardo…all starters available. If I do trade Hanley, I gotta get 2 solid keepers out of this not counting David Wright.

    Ethier is a great value and a keeper especially considering the outfielders available next year. Kemp, Ellsbury, and Bay are probably the top OF to be free agents next year. I like Ethier also because my OF consists of BJ, Rios, Quentin, Manny, Bourn, Morgan. Lots of question marks and Ethier brings some consistency, and it gives me a lot more flexibility to be patient with Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury…in this deal might be worth the gamble.

    The 4th player is really the question. Do i go with Andrus or Sanchez? Andrus (17th rd value) is a great stolen base guy, but the real issue i have now is what i do at SS. The only SS i drafted was Ian Desmond. Now, i like the guy and he's got a lot of promise, but whats your take?

    Sanchez (15th rd money) I like, i think he's a definite keeper along with Nolasco for next year and possibly Buchholz. I think its better to only have to reach for 2 starting pitchers in a draft, rather than 3. I need help in K's this season, he will do that. So if i had to pick 1, who would you pick?

    My only other thought was to ask for both, and then throw in a Nyjer Morgan (18th rd) or Michael Bourn (14th rd) since one is expendable. With an outfield of Upton, Ellsbury, Rios, Ethier, Manny, Quentin…only 5 of those 6 can play and there really is no need to have BOTH Bourn and Morgan for this year. If you think Andrus is a must add, which guy would you trade? I'm thinking Morgan…he's a cheaper value which is good for the other guy, he was interested in him before, but mostly I just feel Bourn is just more of a sure thing in Houston.

  6. spyder2009 says:

    I also just got offered Verlander and Pence for BJ and buchholz.

    Verlamder is 10th rd $, pence isn't a keeper. Upton is 2nd rd $ (not a keeper) buchholz is 14th rd $

    If I get ethier and ellsbury, upton can be dispensable. I'd have a rotation of wainwright, nolasco, verlander, sanchez and my OF of ethier, rios, ellsbury, manny, quentin

  7. Schruender says:

    I am always extremely hesitent to trade a player of Hanley or Pujols' caliber or what I would call a "trump card." Those are the only two guys that for me would be worth trading 3 to 4 good players. In your case the offer does give you 3 to 4 good players. Before you do anything I would send a message to the league saying that you were thinking about dealing Hanley and put a timeline on it (in the next 48 hours) and see if you could get a better offer. I don't think Wright is worth first round money, and with Longo being available in 2011 that's a safer bet. Of course I am always preaching play for this year, so maybe I'm wrong on that end.

    That trade is pretty even as far as I can tell. Waiting will be the best option for you so that Ells can get back and you have more time to see who David Wright is exactly. If you have to choose between Andrus and Sanchez, I would take Sanchez. He's been great so far, and worse case scenario if Desmond doesn't work out (not crazy about him by the way) you can always just deal Sanchez for a shortstop.

  8. spyder2009 says:

    Yea, i'm not big on trading a big name like Hanley, but I really dont think i can win this year with the roster i have, and next year i will have keepers, but better upgrades are available. Here's my lineup currently (ill put K by the keeper and round)

    C-VMart (K-9)
    1B-Morales (K-17)
    2B-Hill (K-12)
    SS-Hanley (K-1)
    OF-BJ Upton
    UT-Cantu (K-16?)
    UT-Bourn (K-14)
    Bench: Morgan-OF
    SP-Nolasco (K-15)
    SP-Buchholz (K?)
    SP-CJ Wilson (K?)
    RP-Bailey (K-13)

    Bench-DiceK, Marcum, Porcello, Young, Wolf

    With the Hanley trade, and then if i make the Upton/buchholz for verlander/pence trade, here is the squad:

    C-Vmart (K-9)
    1B-Morales (K-17)
    SS-Andrus (K?-17)
    3B-Wright (K?-1) *would not keep or flip him
    OF-Ethier (K-7)
    UT-Cantu (K?-16)
    UT-Bourn (K-7)

    Bench-Pence, Quentin, Lopez, Aramis, Desmond

    SP-Nolasco (K-15)
    SP-Verlander (K-10)
    SP-Sanchez (K-15)
    RP-Bailey (K-8)

    Bench: Dice-K, Marcum, CJ Wilson, Porcello, Young

    Hitting a slight downgrade, pitching a bigger upgrade. which roster would you take?

  9. Schruender says:

    I'm a fan of getting C.J. Wilson out of the rotation for Sanchez. It's not often that a starting pitcher is successful in Arlington, but that whole Giants staff is pretty good because of that park, league, and division. Also I think Pence is slightly better than Rios so you're getting better there too.

    Overall though I wouldn't take this. Going from Hill and Hanley to Andrus and McGehee up the middle is a really big downgrade compared to the upgrade from CJ Wilson and Wright at third for Aramis. I don't think you need Ellsbury with your roster, I would be more focused on acquiring another starter than anything else.

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