Key Stats: Chris Johnson hit .351 with runners on base last season. That was great. What wasn’t great is that he only started 90 games because the Astros waited too long to cut their losses with Pedro Feliz and that 70% of Johnson’s at-bats were while he was hitting 6th or further down in the batting order. If Johnson’s numbers were projected over a 162 game season, he would have had 20 home runs and 94 RBI. And that doesn’t take into account what will happen if the Astros move into a better part of the order.
Skeptics Say: Johnson hit .414 in limited action in June. He sizzled in July with a .359 average. That went down to .306 in August. And it went down further to .267 in September. For good measure in his three October games, Johnson hit just .182. Perhaps he hit a wall or perhaps teams began to find a hole in his game. The numbers indicate that he has difficulty with off-speed pitches and lefties. Johnson will have to adjust.
Peer Comparison: Johnson wasn’t the only rookie third basemen in the NL Central that teams turned to for help in the second half. Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates had his moments too and should be snagged up before Johnson on draft day. Johnson is a former 4th round pick who will be 26 on Opening Day. Alvarez was taken 2nd overall just three years ago and will be 24 on Opening Day. Where a player is drafted is not always the best indication of how well they were perform as we know in all sports, but more good players come from the first round than the fourth. It is pretty close according to the numbers.
Alvarez – 9.6% BB Rate, 34.3% K Rate, 0.31 BB:K, 14.8% Line Drive Rate
Johnson – 4.1% BB Rate, 26.7% K Rate, 0.16 BB:K, 24% Line Drive Rate
Both players have glaring weaknesses. Alvarez’s strikeouts are a huge problem – projected over a full season he would have had the third highest strikeout percentage in baseball. Likewise, Johnson would have been in the bottom five for walk rate if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Lucky for both players, they are on teams that will rely on them, so they both should stay in the lineup through struggles.
Lineup Outlook: Toward the end of the season, Brad Mills was hitting Johnson fifth. It is unlikely that Hunter Pence or Carlos Lee will be moved from the third and fourth spots, so Johnson figures to hit fifth again. That all could change if Brett Wallace starts to hit like some scouts believe he can. Wallace did not do much in his time last season and the Astros may even have Lee become the perminant first baseman. Assuming that Johnson remains in the fifth spot, he is a candidate for 100 RBI.
Projection: Chris Johnson is more than just a fantasy football legend.
77 R 23 HR 92 RBI 5 SB .286 AVG .810 OPS
We’ve moved to FantasyBaseball365!
We're excited to announce that FBHotStove will be teaming up with FantasyBaseball365 to provide the best daily fantasy baseball content on the web.
This means that all new FBHotStove content will now be posted and can be viewed on www.fantasybaseball365.com.
You can catch all our new posts at:
Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.
Recent Comments on FBHS
- LynchMob on Fantasy Pioneers Okrent, Waggoner, and Wolf Should Be in Cooperstown
- Lincoln on Jordan Walden Taking Over as Closer
- iq test on Torii Hunter Player Projection No. 92
- Discount Viagra online - Viagra discount coupon codes for all the customers! on Daily Notes | Is Matt Joyce for real?
- Yuri on Top 50 Players in Yahoo for July
Check out the Yardbarker Network!
Browse the FBHS Archives
- November 2011 (1)
- September 2011 (19)
- August 2011 (30)
- July 2011 (33)
- June 2011 (32)
- May 2011 (36)
- April 2011 (29)
- March 2011 (43)
- February 2011 (28)
- January 2011 (31)
- December 2010 (29)
- November 2010 (30)
- October 2010 (20)
- September 2010 (32)
- August 2010 (31)
- July 2010 (33)
- June 2010 (35)
- May 2010 (34)
- April 2010 (30)
- March 2010 (40)
- February 2010 (27)
- January 2010 (31)
- December 2009 (33)
- November 2009 (29)
- October 2009 (26)
- September 2009 (33)
- August 2009 (34)
- July 2009 (41)
- June 2009 (39)
- May 2009 (35)
- April 2009 (39)
- March 2009 (31)
- February 2009 (28)
- January 2009 (31)
- December 2008 (32)
- November 2008 (31)
- October 2008 (2)