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Key Stats: Jaime Garcia pitched 163.1 innings last season and could have pitched more. The Cardinals were not competing and did the right thing in shutting Garcia down for the last three weeks of the season. He did pitch 155 innings in his first year as a pro and despite coming off of Tommy John for the 2009 season, there are players you should worry more about as far as injuries heading into next season.

Skeptics Say: The post all-star ERA and WHIP were significantly worse than they were the year before. The WHIP is particularly concerning as Garcia did not have a WHIP below 1.30 after April. In a normal-sized mixed league, that number is below average.

Peer Comparison: Garcia had the 8th best home runs to 9 innings ratio in all of baseball last season. The seven players ahead of Garcia and their home run: fly ball rate are listed below:

Josh Johnson – 4.2%
Chad Billingsley – 4.5%
Ubaldo Jimenez – 5.1%
Francisco Liriano – 6.3%
C.J. Wilson – 5.3%
Anibal Sanchez – 4.5%
Clay Buchholz - 5.6%
Garcia – 7.3%

To use a football analogy, Garcia didn’t give up the big play last year, and as far as luck is concerned, Garcia needed less of it than the other guys who did not give up the big play.

Team Outlook: Garcia’s ERA was two runs lower at home than it was on the road. According to Park Factors, Busch Stadium was the seventh best place to pitch in baseball last season. While Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were also about a run better at home, Garcia was clearly the guy that benefited more than any other pitcher for the Cards.

What They’re Saying: Yahoo: #47 Starting Pitcher & #191 Overall; CBS Sportsline: #58 Starting Pitcher; Couch Managers: #203 Overall; Tristan Cockcroft of #36 Overall

Projection: He won’t have the sixth best ERA again this year, but the Cardinals will win games.
17 wins 3.19 ERA 1.28 WHIP 150 K in 184 innings

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