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Key Stats: Based on his work load last season, Jeremy Hellickson can throw about 185 innings assuming the Rays would want to make sure he doesn’t throw more anything more than 30 more innings than he totaled last season. Considering that players like Josh Johnson and Mat Latos finished with close to that total last season, the excuse that Hellickson won’t be valuable because he won’t pitch enough can certainly be argued.

Skeptics Say: According to Baseball Reference Hellickson is listed at 6′ 1” and 185 pounds. That’s a pretty wirey frame which can wear down and be susceptible to injury.

Aside from numbers, the secret is out on Hellickson and it will be hard to get him at a good value. He delivered on the hype that made him a notable prospect last season, and every owner is always looking to get the next flashy pick – the next J.J. or Latos. He was great with the Rays, but it was 46.1 innings. Carlos Silva was Cy Young for that amount of time last year too.

Peer Comparison: If finding a sleeper is what your objective is in a draft, you’ve come to the wrong guy. One guy that could end up finding his way into that sleeper label this year is Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann showed he was healthy at the end of last season, and he also showed that he was developing. He went from allowing 5 earned in one start to striking out 9 and allowing 1 hit in his next. These two pitchers really are not that far off of each other. They are one year apart in age, neither has thrown the equivalent of a full MLB season, and both have the potential to rack up a ton of strikeouts. The differences between them are that Zimmermann has gone under a knife in the past two years and one player plays for a good team while the other does not. If the descripancy between these two players is big enough, Zimmerman looks like a nice value.

As far as what Hellickson projects to in terms of stuff, a guy that jumps out to me is Cole Hamels from the right side. Hellickson likes to throw the change up, and it looks like his best pitch. Hellickson threw it about 29% of the time while drinking his cup of coffee last season. That is the same amount that Hamels has used it over his five big league seasons and it also happens to be Hamels’ best pitch. Hellickson also had an impressive 10.5 MPH difference between his fastball and change while Hamels has been right around 10 MPH. Both numbers are relatively large differences compared to the average pitcher.

Team Outlook: The Rays are losing some key pieces this offseason on offense, but they are also retaining a perennial MVP candidate at third base and could get some valuable contributions from bounce back candidates like Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett. Overall they should not be a top three run scoring team, but they should be in the top ten to fifteen teams still. Where the pitchers will get hurt the most is with the almost inevitable loss of Rafael Soriano who saved 94% of his opportunities last season.

What They’re Saying: Yahoo: #45 Starting Pitcher & #188 Overall; CBS Sportsline: #15 Starting Pitcher; Couch Managers: #302 Overall; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com: #41 Starting Pitcher

Projection: Jaime Garcia in 2010 and Tommy Hanson in 2009 stepped in right away as rookies and were top 120 players. Nobody has a better shot of doing that this year than Hellickson.
13 wins 3.44 ERA 1.25 WHIP 185 K in 175 innings

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