Key Stats: This is the pick that will make the rest of your leagues drop their collective jaws. The pick that will shake up the whole league. Oh wait never mind I got this confused with a different day. It’s only Vernon Wells. This is the pick that will make the rest of your league collectively start to discuss moving the pace of the draft a little quicker.
Wells had a terrific season after being a forgotten man since 2006. He had the most home runs, RBI, and best OPS since that 2006 and also had the second most doubles of his career with 44. And as boring as he is, he has only missed 9 games combined over the past two seasons and will make $23 million so it’s not as if he’ll be like Chris Coghlan, Scott Podsednik or Jonny Gomes as far as there being questions as to whether or not he’ll get a ton of at-bats.
Skeptics Say: For three consecutive seasons prior to last year, Wells did not finish a season ranked in the top 150 by Yahoo. Those seasons were in his 28-30 year old seasons, so that should have been the time in his career where he was close to his peak performance. Which is the better sample size, three years of numbers or one?
Also, last season Wells was ranked the 6th best player at the end of April, but from June through August (about half the season) he hit just .241. Essentially one hot month is what propelled him to being one of the seventy-five best ranked players last year. For him to repeat that performance seems very unlikely.
Peer Comparison: Corey Hart and Wells both ended up with 31 home runs on the season, but Hart is much easier to like heading into 2011. Here’s why Hart is the superior pick:
Hart – Age: 28, 1 HR every 18 at-bats, approximately 65% of at-bats were with Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder hitting behind him
Wells – Age: 32, 1 HR every 19 at-bats, approximately 55% of at-bats were with Jose Bautista hitting in front of him
Hart is younger and if the lineups are not shaken up too much (and Fielder isn’t traded), the Brewers have a better situation for Hart to thrive in.
Lineup Outlook: Back in 2009, Wells stole 17 bases in 21 attempts. Last year he only stole 6 bases in 10 attempts. Given how great a season it was for him in other categories, if Wells could have added 8 to 10 steals to his final line, he would have had a shot to be ranked in the top 30 in the player ranking formula. Where his steals go this season is a question first and foremost of health, but now it will also be up to John Farrell. Farrell has never managed before and has always been a pitching coach, so what his philosophy will be when it comes to sending Blue Jay runners is hard to guess. Given that he stole just 4 in 2008, I’d be more inclined to say that Wells will be closer to the 6 he had last year than the 17 two years ago.
Projection: Yes it is a boring pick, but if he comes out of the gates on fire again you won’t be thinking that.
76 R 24 HR 86 RBI 8 SB .279 AVG .830 OPS
We’ve moved to FantasyBaseball365!
We're excited to announce that FBHotStove will be teaming up with FantasyBaseball365 to provide the best daily fantasy baseball content on the web.
This means that all new FBHotStove content will now be posted and can be viewed on www.fantasybaseball365.com.
You can catch all our new posts at:
Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.
Recent Comments on FBHS
- iq test on Torii Hunter Player Projection No. 92
- Discount Viagra online - Viagra discount coupon codes for all the customers! on Daily Notes | Is Matt Joyce for real?
- Yuri on Top 50 Players in Yahoo for July
- Rhya on Daily Notes | Bartolo Colon’s Inevitable Poor Second Half
- Morpheus on Guest Expert Analysis | Pineda, Britton, or Drabek?
Check out the Yardbarker Network!
Browse the FBHS Archives
- November 2011 (1)
- September 2011 (19)
- August 2011 (30)
- July 2011 (33)
- June 2011 (32)
- May 2011 (36)
- April 2011 (29)
- March 2011 (43)
- February 2011 (28)
- January 2011 (31)
- December 2010 (29)
- November 2010 (30)
- October 2010 (20)
- September 2010 (32)
- August 2010 (31)
- July 2010 (33)
- June 2010 (35)
- May 2010 (34)
- April 2010 (30)
- March 2010 (40)
- February 2010 (27)
- January 2010 (31)
- December 2009 (33)
- November 2009 (29)
- October 2009 (26)
- September 2009 (33)
- August 2009 (34)
- July 2009 (41)
- June 2009 (39)
- May 2009 (35)
- April 2009 (39)
- March 2009 (31)
- February 2009 (28)
- January 2009 (31)
- December 2008 (32)
- November 2008 (31)
- October 2008 (2)