Key Stats: Brett Myers, welcome back to fantasy baseball relevance! A draft day afterthought to many in 2010, Myers was one of the most consistent starters in all of MLB, pitching at least 6 innings in first 32 starts of the season (he pitched 5.2 innings in his final start). So it’s not surprising he had a career year in ERA at 3.14.
So what changed for a pitcher who hasn’t been relevant for 4 years? Two things: he kept the ball in the strike-zone and in the ballpark (as last year marked his season low in both BB/9 at 2.7 and HR/9 at 0.8.)
Skeptics Say: The big question is can he keep these numbers similar in 2011.
Well let’s start with the BB/9. While this was the lowest of his career, in the end it wasn’t too divergent from his career trend in the category.
The HR/9 rate is the key for Myers. Last year’s total was the clear outlier in his career number (0.8 HR/9 last year compared to 1.3 HR/9 for his career.) and that 0.5 difference has a tremendous impact on ERA. The difference can best be explained by a career low 8.5% HR/FB (compared to 14.3% career.)
How can you explain this drop? First, when you look at the difference between Citizen’s Bank Park vs. Minute Made Park (where he pitched in 2010) the Park Factors for HR’s is not that much different. Second, his GB % of 48.5 is consistent with his career 47.5%, so an increased GB rate may not be the answer either.
While the stats do not provide a clear answer into the decrease in HR, it may be as simple as his better control resulting in fewer balls being left over the plate. In any case, you should expect an increase in HR/FB % for Myers in 2010. It’s just a question of how much of one.
Peer Comparison: Since wins are hard to come by nowadays, I think it’s fitting to compare the Astros top two starting pitchers: Myers and Wandy Rodriguez (two of the top pitchers in QS last year with 24 and 23 respectfully). Here are there numbers from 2010:
Myers: 14 wins 3.14 ERA 1.24 WHIP 180 K’s
Rodriguez: 11 wins 3.60 ERA 1.29 WHIP 178 K’s
While Myers and Rodriguez ended with similar numbers, they got to these totals in two totally different ways. Myers was consistent and continued his strong pitching throughout the year. Rodriguez, however, endured a horrible first half with an ERA of 4.97 only to be brilliant in the second half with a 2.11 ERA (with a significant raise in K/9 from 6.8 to 9.7.)
So who is the Houston pitcher you would more like to have for 2011? While Myers was better overall in 2010, my answer is still Wandy Rodriguez who in the second half of 2010 was the pitcher he was throughout 2009 (which means top 20). But remember that Myers is not far behind with his good K rate and regained control.
Team Outlook: With the 28th best offense in terms of runs the Houston Astros offer one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. The bad news for Myers and his teammate Wandy Rodriguez is that it probably won’t get much better in 2011 unless young hitters like Hunter Pence, Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace take big leaps next year.
Projection: I am one of the believers in the new Brett Myers and think he’ll be closer to his break-out year in 2010 than his form the few years before.
11 wins 3.75 ERA 1.25 WHIP 180 Ks in 218 innings
We’ve moved to FantasyBaseball365!
We're excited to announce that FBHotStove will be teaming up with FantasyBaseball365 to provide the best daily fantasy baseball content on the web.
This means that all new FBHotStove content will now be posted and can be viewed on www.fantasybaseball365.com.
You can catch all our new posts at:
Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.
Recent Comments on FBHS
- LynchMob on Fantasy Pioneers Okrent, Waggoner, and Wolf Should Be in Cooperstown
- Lincoln on Jordan Walden Taking Over as Closer
- iq test on Torii Hunter Player Projection No. 92
- Discount Viagra online - Viagra discount coupon codes for all the customers! on Daily Notes | Is Matt Joyce for real?
- Yuri on Top 50 Players in Yahoo for July
Check out the Yardbarker Network!
Browse the FBHS Archives
- November 2011 (1)
- September 2011 (19)
- August 2011 (30)
- July 2011 (33)
- June 2011 (32)
- May 2011 (36)
- April 2011 (29)
- March 2011 (43)
- February 2011 (28)
- January 2011 (31)
- December 2010 (29)
- November 2010 (30)
- October 2010 (20)
- September 2010 (32)
- August 2010 (31)
- July 2010 (33)
- June 2010 (35)
- May 2010 (34)
- April 2010 (30)
- March 2010 (40)
- February 2010 (27)
- January 2010 (31)
- December 2009 (33)
- November 2009 (29)
- October 2009 (26)
- September 2009 (33)
- August 2009 (34)
- July 2009 (41)
- June 2009 (39)
- May 2009 (35)
- April 2009 (39)
- March 2009 (31)
- February 2009 (28)
- January 2009 (31)
- December 2008 (32)
- November 2008 (31)
- October 2008 (2)