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Key Stats: In his last 1000 at-bats, Jimmy Rollins is hitting .248. The excuses for injury, BABIP, etc. can be made for him, but this is a 1000 at-bat period of time, so the number can’t be ignored either. Rollins didn’t just fail to meet expectations in batting average last season, he failed across the board statistically because of the injuries to his hamstring and calf muscles. Perhaps that issue is behind him now. Rollins is taking yoga lessons with the instruction of his wife and also could work out with Ryan Howard starting in January. He’s only 32 years old, so for him to fall so far so fast is not likely.

Skeptics Say: What if the yoga doesn’t work? What if he elects not to work out with Howard? What if the pressure of a contract season gets to him? And even if he’s healthy, works out, and plays the game for the love of the game, Rollins won’t be the MVP player he was in 2007. For the past three seasons Rollins has had an OPS below .800.

Peer Comparison: Rollins is a top five shortstop heading into next season. That said don’t let the scarcity of the position force you into drafting him earlier than you would want. There are ten first basemen who are no-brainers that can be picked ahead of Rollins.

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Joey Votto
  4. Adrian Gonzalez
  5. Mark Teixeira
  6. Howard
  7. Prince Fielder
  8. Kevin Youkilis
  9. Justin Morneau
  10. Kendry Morales

Additionally, I would also pick Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Billy Butler ahead of Rollins – though all three of those choices are more debatable. Remember that Rollins has not been a top 80 player in any of the last three seasons and only two shortstops were top 80 players last season (Troy Tulowtizki and Hanley Ramirez). On the flip side, there were 12 first basemen that finished last year as a top 80 player.

Lineup Outlook: Brad Lidge was 0-8 with 11 blown saves, and an ERA of 7.21 in 2009. Charlie Manuel never really demoted him from his role of closer. He proved that he was loyal to the core. Rollins did not get the same loyalty and respect to get out of his struggles that Lidge had last season as Rollins was removed from the lead off role for several games last season. The Phillies have that luxury with Shane Victorino having the skills to lead off and Placido Polanco having the skills to hit second. Rollins should be hitting first to start the season, but if he loses that it will be devestating to his fantasy value. Much of his value the past five seasons has come based on the fact that he’s led the league in plate appearances in three of those five seasons. It’s awfully hard to log plate appearances hitting fifth, sixth, or seventh in the order.

What They’re Saying: Yahoo: #4 Shortstop & #40 Overall; CBS Sporstline: #4 Shortstop; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com: #6 Shortstop; Couch Managers: #69 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #28 Overall

Projection: I don’t think the Mock Draft Central ranking will be anywhere close to where this guy really ends up, but if it is he’s your problem not mine.
94 R 16 HR 67 RBI 27 SB .268 AVG .770 OPS

2 Responses to Jimmy Rollins Player Projection No. 107

  1. Bruce Knutson says:

    94 runs could be a bit optimistic. are you expecting 500 abs?

  2. Schruender says:

    Yes I am. Don't forget it was only 2009 that he led MLB in plate appearances and at-bats. I don't expect him to get to that level again, but the Phillies lineup is potent even without Werth and 500-550 is all he'll need to get in the mid 90s to low 100s in runs.

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