Key Statistics: I hate Brian Wilson. I hate him, I hate his beard, I hate his quirks, I hate everything about him. Now that that’s out of the way, the guy has been trending upwards for years:
2008: 3-2, 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 41 SAVES, 62 Hits, 28 BB, 67 K, 62.1 IP
2009: 5-6, 2.74 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 38 SAVES, 60 Hits, 27 BB, 83 K, 72.1 IP
2010: 3-3, 1.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 48 SAVES, 62 Hits, 26 BB, 93 K, 74.2 IP
Wilson’s biggest problem when he came up from the minors was his control. During his ’08 season, Wilson walked almost half the number of guys he struck out and allowed as many hits as innings pitched. The odd thing about this is that his walks and hits allowed numbers have stayed almost identical, yet his ERA and WHIP keep on shrinking. The good news for fantasy owners is that this means the guy is basically just striking everyone out. In 2010, Wilson struck out 93 batters in 310 plate appearances. That’s 1/3 of the batters he faced. Just for comparison’s sake, 2010 Cy Young winner Roy Halladay struck out 219 batters in 996 innings, which is about 20% of the batters he faced. Going forth, even if Wilson doesn’t appreciate in skill at the same prodigious clip he has in the past few years and instead plateaus, you are still looking at an elite source for strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and saves.
Skeptics Say: I’ve combed through Wilson’s numbers, and even with a heart full of hate, it’s hard to find something to knock this guy on. Leaving 86% of runners on base won’t happen again and thus his sub two ERA will be difficult to replicate. Last year, Wilson also had an above average infield converting outs behind him. With Miguel Tejada manning short and an ever-expanding Pablo Sandoval in the hot corner, there aren’t those same assurances to keep those balls from becoming hits. Also, as previously noted, Wilson has given up the same number of hits and walks every year – the increase and innings in strikeouts are nice, but typically you want a pitcher whose hit and K numbers go down at the same time.
Peer Comparison: Let’s take a look the closers in the NL West;
Wilson: 48 SV, 74.2 IP, 1.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 26 BB, 93 K, .220 BAA
Heath Bell: 47 SV, 70 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 28 BB, 86 K, .221 BAA
JJ Putz: 3 SV, 54 IP, 2.83 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15 BB, 65 K, .204 BAA
Huston Street: 20 SV, 47.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11 BB, 45 K, .225 BAA
Jonathan Broxton: 22 SV, 62.1 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 28 BB, 73 K, .270 BAA
I’m taking Brian Wilson before all of them, for a few reasons going beyond the numbers. Putz is stepping into a new job in a new league, Brox is coming off a terrible second half (thus his awful 2010 numbers) and Heath Bell could and most likely will be traded at any minute. So between Bell and Wilson, seeing as both of their stats are trending similarly in the past 3 years, drafting Wilson above Bell is definitely the call to make based on trade speculation.
Lineup Outlook: The Giants won the World Series last year (I still can’t believe that happened) based on their power pitching and spotty, but timely hitting. With a largely unchanged lineup and the same power starting pitching that got them to the series in the first place, I would expect the same type of save opportunities for Wilson next year.
Projection: It’s hard to imagine his numbers getting better, but with the confidence of closing out a World Series underneath him, I can see Brian Wilson getting better next year.
48 saves, 2.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 98 K in 68 IP
We’ve moved to FantasyBaseball365!
We're excited to announce that FBHotStove will be teaming up with FantasyBaseball365 to provide the best daily fantasy baseball content on the web.
This means that all new FBHotStove content will now be posted and can be viewed on www.fantasybaseball365.com.
You can catch all our new posts at:
Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.
Recent Comments on FBHS
- Lincoln on Jordan Walden Taking Over as Closer
- iq test on Torii Hunter Player Projection No. 92
- Discount Viagra online - Viagra discount coupon codes for all the customers! on Daily Notes | Is Matt Joyce for real?
- Yuri on Top 50 Players in Yahoo for July
- Rhya on Daily Notes | Bartolo Colon’s Inevitable Poor Second Half
Check out the Yardbarker Network!
Browse the FBHS Archives
- November 2011 (1)
- September 2011 (19)
- August 2011 (30)
- July 2011 (33)
- June 2011 (32)
- May 2011 (36)
- April 2011 (29)
- March 2011 (43)
- February 2011 (28)
- January 2011 (31)
- December 2010 (29)
- November 2010 (30)
- October 2010 (20)
- September 2010 (32)
- August 2010 (31)
- July 2010 (33)
- June 2010 (35)
- May 2010 (34)
- April 2010 (30)
- March 2010 (40)
- February 2010 (27)
- January 2010 (31)
- December 2009 (33)
- November 2009 (29)
- October 2009 (26)
- September 2009 (33)
- August 2009 (34)
- July 2009 (41)
- June 2009 (39)
- May 2009 (35)
- April 2009 (39)
- March 2009 (31)
- February 2009 (28)
- January 2009 (31)
- December 2008 (32)
- November 2008 (31)
- October 2008 (2)