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Key Stats: Last September, Troy Tulowitzki joined Barry Bonds and Albert Belle as the only players since 1900 to hit 14 home runs in a span of 15 games. For head to head leagues, that helped some fantasy teams advance when they had less business doing so than VCU. If his season were projected for a 162 game season, Tulo would have hit 36 home runs. That’s three better than Hanley Ramirez’s career high set in 2008. Tulo would have tied for first in RBI and scored the most runs outright at the pace he was on in those two categories. In other words, he isn’t a number two overall pick solely because he plays a thin position.

Skeptics Say: Tulo has battled injuries in two out of the last three seasons, so what’s to say it won’t happen again. One aggressive slide into second base to break up a double play is all it could take or a similar type of play.

Also, consider what he had done before he went on the tear last September. Through 94 games he was on pace for 103 R, 21 HR, 99 RBI, 16 SB, .319 AVG, and .885 OPS. It’s certainly a good line, but perhaps more second round worthy than first round worthy.

Peer Comparison: The gaps at shortstop are huge after Tulo and Hanley. Consider the median for the top twelve shortstops last season:

83 R 15 HR 68.5 RBI 10.5 SB .279 AVG

Tulo was +6, + 12, + 26.5, + 0.5, +.036 versus the competition. Better across the board in all five categories and substantially better in some categories. And that comes after a season in which he missed 40 games.

Considering Albert Pujols was only better versus the rest in the categories of steals and runs (+23.5, +9.5, +2.5, + 13.5 ,+ .018), you could make an excellent case that position scarcity makes Tulo the number one overall pick.

Lineup Outlook: Tulo and Cargo are absolute studs, but compared to Rockies teams this offense is weak. Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez are the only players worthy of mixed league starter status. That doesn’t mean that some players can’t emerge. Jose Lopez is two seasons removed from a 25 home run season in Safeco, so Coors Field could be just what the doctor ordered after he was a dud in 2009. Ty Wigginton hit 22 last season with Baltimore. Lopez hits lefties well and Wigginton hits righties well, so it could be a nice platoon that sends 25 home runs out to Tulo’s benefit. Seth Smith could also get to 25 home runs if the Rockies can give him 550 at-bats. The pace would be right in line with his career numbers. And a third potential source of 25 home runs is Ian Stewart. Like Lopez, Stewart is just two seasons removed from mashing 25 in a season. Stewart has never had more than 425 at-bats, so he could be a lethal source of power if a full season were ever in the cards. The protection looks worse than it is for Tulo. At least one of these players has to emerge.

What They’re Saying:Yahoo: #2 Shortstop & #3 Overall; CBS Sportsline: #2 Shortstop; Tristan Cockcroft of #2 Shortstop & #12 Overall; John Halpin of Fox Sports: #2 Shortstop & #4 Overall; RotoChamp: #2 Shortstop & #8 Overall; Charlie Saponara: #2 Shortstop & #6 Overall; Fantasy Newsman: #2 Shortstop

Projection: Given that he’s also going to win another Gold Glove, Tulo will be your 2011 NL MVP as the Rockies advance to the playoffs.

100 R 32 HR 108 RBI 14 SB .303 AVG .945 OPS

3 Responses to Troy Tulowitzki Player Projection No.2

  1. Brian says:

    You better hope he has either a better start or another historic September to justify this rank. I’d have this top 10:

    Hanley (reluctantly and wish I had the 4th pick)

  2. Mark says:

    I better hope he has both a historic start and a monster September. I own him in almost every league I’m in.

    You have made no secret about your interest in either first base or outfield with your first pick. Good luck this season Brian! Looking forward to hearing your thoughts during the season.

  3. KOBEshigawa says:

    Was pretty lukewarm on Tulo before I read this Marky – I have to say, you might have swayed me. I don’t and didn’t have the no. 2 pick in any draft I took part in, but I think I would have to take Tulo with that selection.

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