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It’s almost May, which means you better take advantage of owners that are itching to hit the panic button on slow starters before it’s too late.

Ervin Santana

Santana has actually pitched much better than his horrible season line indicates, making him an early season buy-low or waiver wire target. He doesn’t seem to have lost anything stuff-wise — his velocity appears to be about in line with what we’d expect from his last few years. The results back this up, you just have to look past his 5.51 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 0-3 record. Santana’s .350 BABIP is 52 points higher than his career average — it’s going to come down. His batted ball stats certainly don’t indicate otherwise — his LD% has actually gone down thus far. He’s also gotten unlucky with leaving guys on base, as he’s been stuck with a 62.2 LOB%. Santana’s K/9 rate is his highest since 2009, but nothing to get too excited about just yet — some of the increase in K’s may be attributed to getting less outs the easy way. As more batters ground out and fly out against him, as should be expected, I expect his K/9 to end up closer to 7.00 than 8.00. This is backed up by Santana’s Contact % and Swinging Strike %, which are consistent with his 2009-10 seasons. There’s no reason to think Santana can’t at least match last year’s sub 4.00 ERA performance going forward, as his FIP (3.25) and xFIP (3.69) suggest. If he keeps his BB/9 down (lowest since 2008), he could be even better.

Adam Dunn

Dunn has not produced in the DH role thus far, and a bout of appendicitis hasn’t helped ease him into his transition to the White Sox. Dunn’s a notorious strikeout machine and is seeing an unprecedented — even for him — 41.7 K%. He’s making much less contact this year (59.5% vs 68.2% last year), which is a cause for concern. I’m inclined to believe (possibly because I own him, but mostly for rational reasons) that this is small sample size noise and will simply disregard those stats. Dunn’s slow start is about as fortuitous as it gets for anyone seeking power via trades. This picture of Dunn’s 2010 doubles (light blue) and fly outs (orange) at home  displayed over U.S. Cellular Field says it all.

Dunn's 2010 Nationals Park Non-HR Fly Balls Displayed on U.S. Cellular Field

Dunn's 2010 Nationals Park doubles and fly outs displayed on U.S. Cellular Field

Source: Sean Kelly, Katron.org
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