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The Phillies and Roy Oswalt have a mutual option for $16 million next season with about a $2 million buy out on both sides according to Rotoworld. Will that option get picked up by both sides? The best indication of trying to see where Oswalt will be is where he is going right now.

Oswalt is having a down year by his standards. He missed the first couple weeks in May because of a bad back. An indication that a relatively frail pitcher with over 2,000 innings in Major League Baseball may finally be succumbing to his life’s work at age 33. Since his return he has struck out more than three batters just once in seven starts and has a WHIP of 1.46. The question inevitably becomes is he still hurt, and with the back as the chief issue, can he be counted upon to stay healthy long term (as in the next 1 to 4 seasons)? That is the question that the Philadelphia Phillies have to ask given that they could spend that $14 million elsewhere. The 2012 free agent class is thin, so finding his replacement won’t be easy, but with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay not going anywhere perhaps the Phillies will plug holes outside the rotation.

Then there is Oswalt’s side of the decision on his option. If the potential free agents at starting pitcher (C.J. Wilson should top the list) is as thin as it is he might be convinced that his last big contract is best signed now rather than waiting until the 2013 free agent class which could include Hamels, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano, and Jered Weaver.

Of course all of this will ultimately boil down to what happens in September and October. Oswalt absolutely dominated in the second halves of 2008 and 2010, and based on those past performances can obviously turn it around this year. He could go anywhere from win the World Series and command a huge new deal or win the World Series and retire – a possibility that would not shock Jon Heyman. The idea seems hard to believe, but Oswalt saw his native Mississippi become engulfed by a tornado earlier this season and will have enough money and mileage to make that decision make sense too. Time will tell, but this will certainly be an interesting story to follow.

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