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Ryan Vogelsong improved to 9-1 yesterday by giving up just one run in six innings. It was yet another quality start at home in a season in which Vogelsong has owned opposing hitters at AT&T Park. He has had quality starts in nine of a possible ten starts. His ERA there is a microscopic 1.30, – the best home ERA in baseball by more than a quarter of a run. Interestingly the ERA at home is more than two runs better at home than it is on the road where Vogelsong sports a 3.55 ERA. That isn’t bad in any way, but it seems to suggest that Vogelsong is due to get hit much harder at home.

Looking at Vogelsong’s game logs, it actually looks like his road numbers are due to come down just as much as his home numbers are due to come up. Vogelsong has had one start in which he gave up more than 3 earned and that start came in his second start of the year all the way back on May 3rd. If we throw that out of his numbers, Vogelsong’s road ERA is 2.83. That would be good for 16th best in baseball, or better than roughly half the teams in the league’s number one starters.

Of course all of these numbers are based on ERA. Checking in with the geek numbers at Fangraphs, Vogelsong’s FIP and xFIP are both a run and a half higher than his actual ERA. He can’t keep doing this forever, but I’m done being a skeptic (I said he wouldn’t stick in the rotation once Barry Zito got healthy. Oops.). Vogelsong’s only loss this season came in an effort in which he gave up 1 earned over 8 innings. He should be 10-0 right now and is obviously a no-brainer start every time out. At home or on the road.

  • Brad Lidge got a save yesterday. The Phillies aren’t giving him the job (Ryan Madson was becoming a daddy), but Charlie Manuel loves Lidge in that role for some reason. This situation can definitely evolve.
  • If they gave out second half awards, Dan Uggla would be the front runner for MVP. He extended his hitting streak to twenty-five games, homered, and drove in 3 runs in a game the Braves won by two runs.
  • In five games since acquiring Hunter Pence, Ryan Howard is 9 for 22 (.409) with 8 of those 9 hits going for extra bases.
  • J.P. Arencibia has 6 home runs and 2 doubles in his last ten games.
  • If I had to rank players for next season today, Jacoby Ellsbury would be a top five pick – and I’m not just saying that because he had a walk-off hit for a second straight game. He is 8th in baseball in line drive rate and every home run he hits is just an extended line drive. His outs are loud too. He’s going to finish the season helping fantasy teams in all five of the primary categories from the leadoff spot. I heard Chris Singleton say that Adrian Gonzalez has made Ellsbury better this season. Ellsbury hits two spots ahead of Gonzalez – it’s the other way around.
  • Jonathan Sanchez will get the start for the Giants tomorrow. In 13.2 innings against lesser competition in the minors Sanchez walked 7 hitters. Not a good sign that his season will come together after missing the last six weeks.
  • Derek Jeter is now hitting .280 after another 5-hit game, but he’s still only the 13th best fantasy shortstop despite playing on the league’s second best offense and hitting up in the order all season.
  • Despite having two of the best MLB ready arms in the minors, Fredi Gonzalez is vowing to stand by Derek Lowe (7.52 ERA in last five starts).
  • Hanley Ramirez flew from New York to Miami to have an MRI done on his shoulder.
  • It looks like Roy Oswalt will return to the mound Sunday against the Giants.

 

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